Islamabad, February 3, 2015
According to a Gilani Research Foundation Survey carried out by Gallup Pakistan, 48% Pakistanis believe there is possibility of war between India and Pakistan; 43% believe there is very little possibility.
A nationally representative sample of adult men and women, from across the four provinces was asked, “These days, what is the possibility of war between India and Pakistan?” In response to this question, 15% respondents said there is a lot of possibility, 33% said there is somewhat possibility, while 43% believe there is very little possibility and 9% did not respond.
This question was also asked previously over the last decade. In 2004, 6% respondents said there was a lot of possibility of war between India and Pakistan, while 38% said there was somewhat possibility and 56% said there was no possibility at all. There were minor fluctuations in public opinion between 2004 and 2007. In 2008 however, there was a sharp decline in the percentage of respondents who thought war was not possible (57% to 38%), corresponding with an increase in individuals refusing to respond to the question (1% to 15%). After 2008, the percentage of those who think war was not possible rose once again (54% in 2011) but sharply declined to 44% in 2013. This was complimented by an increase in those who think war is possible between 2011 and 2013 (44% to 54%) before this percentage also declined slightly to 48% in 2014.
Question: “These days, what is the possibility of war between India and Pakistan?”
Possible= A lot of possibility + Somewhat possibility
Not possible= Very little possibility + Not possible at all
Source: Gilani Research Foundation Poll (GRF Poll)
Field work conducted by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association
The study was released by Gilani Research Foundation and carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International. The recent survey was carried out among a sample of 2442 men and women in rural and urban areas of all four provinces of the country, during December 29, 2014 – January 05, 2015. Error margin is estimated to be approximately ± 2-3 per cent at 95% confidence level.